Exploring Lebanon's Growth Prospects

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGRICULTURE;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;    BANKING REGULATIONS;   

RP-ID  :  69477

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This policy note reviews the currentdeterminants of gross domestic product growth in Lebanon,and proposes a strategy to accelerate such growth in theyears to come.Emigration and macro-economic trends willrequire urgent attention to foster growth. In the absence ofjob opportunities, half of each Lebanese generationeventually emigrates while another fourth stays idle.Lebanon's active population is aging, its human capitalis eroding, and its resident population is aging. To reversethese trends, growth needs to be accelerated to meetLebanese economic expectations.Reviewing various possibleconstraints, the note concludes that fiscal imbalances andbarriers to entry are most binding to economic growth. Apro-growth strategy could be articulated around fiscalstabilization and reducing barriers to investment. Ifsynonymous with structural reforms in the pension, civilservice and energy sectors, fiscal stabilization could evenbring significant growth rewards, which are estimated at0.4-0.5 percentage points of additional real GDP growth per year.