Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and Informality in Developing Countries

Bosch, Mariano ; Maloney, William

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADJUSTMENT PROCESS;    AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY;    ATTRITION;    BUSINESS CYCLE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4648
RP-ID  :  WPS4648

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the cyclicalproperties of worker flows in Brazil and Mexico, twoimportant developing countries with large unregulated or informalsectors.It generates three stylized facts thatare critical to the accurate modeling of the sector andwhich suggest the need to rethink the approaches to date.First, the unemployment rate is countercyclical essentiallybecause job separations of informal workers increasedramatically in recessions. Second, the share of formalemployment is countercyclical because of the difficulty offinding formal jobs from inactivity, unemployment and otherinformal jobs during recessions rather than because ofincreased separation from formal jobs. Third, flows fromformality into informality are not countercyclical, but, ifanything, pro-cyclical. Together, these challenge theconventional wisdom that has guided the modeling the sectorthat informal workers are primarily those rationed out ofthe formal labor market. They also offer a new synthesis ofthe mechanics of the cyclical adjustment process. Finally,the paper offers estimates of the moments of worker flowsseries that are needed for calibration.