An Analysis of Crop Choice : Adapting to Climate Change in Latin American Farms

Seo, Niggol ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;    AGRICULTURE;    CARBON;    CHOICE OF CROPS;    CLIMATE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4162
RP-ID  :  WPS4162

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors explore how Latin Americanfarmers adapt to climate by changing crops. They develop amultinomial choice model of farmer's choice of crops.Estimating the model across over 2,000 farmers in sevencountries, they find that both temperature and precipitationaffects the crops that Latin American farmers choose.Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations andwheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetterlocations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, and squash,and in dryer locations maize and potatoes. Global warmingwill cause Latin American farmers to switch away from wheatand potatoes toward fruits and vegetables. Predictions ofthe impact of climate change must reflect not only changesin yields or net revenues per crop but also crop switching.