The Method of Randomization, Economic Policy, and Reasoned Intuition

Basu, Kaushik

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANALOGY;    ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE;    ATTENTION;    BELIEFS;    COMMON SENSE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6722
RP-ID  :  WPS6722

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The method of randomization has been amajor driver in the recent rise to prominence of empiricaldevelopment economics. It has helped uncover patterns andfacts that had earlier escaped attention. But it has alsogiven rise to heated debate and controversy. This paperevaluates the method of randomization and concludes that,while the method of randomization is the gold standard fordescription, it is not able to demonstrate causality. Nordoes it, in itself, lead to policy conclusions, as is oftenclaimed by its advocates. To get to policy conclusionsrequires combining the findings of randomized experimentswith human intuition, which, being founded in evolution, hasinnate strengths. Moreover, even non-randomized empiricalmethods combined with reasoned intuition can help incrafting development policy.