How Much Does an Increase in Oil Prices Affect the Global Economy? Some Insights from a General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK;    AVAILABILITY;    BALANCE;    BARREL;    CARBON;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6515
RP-ID  :  WPS6515

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

A global computable general equilibriummodel is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oilprices with endogenously determined availability of biofuelsto mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on theglobal economy are comparable to those found in otherstudies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed acrosscountries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors ofhigh-income countries, which are relatively energyintensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices thanwould those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverseis true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. Theimpacts are especially strong for oil importers withrelatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such asIndia and China. Although the availability of biofuels doesmitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices,the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels toeconomically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scaleremains limited.