How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?

Ravallion, Martin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE POVERTY;    ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCESS TO SCHOOLING;    AGGREGATE POVERTY;    AGGREGATION BIAS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6325
RP-ID  :  WPS6325

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Alternative scenarios are considered forreducing by one billion the number of people living below$1.25 a day. The low-case, "pessimistic," path tothat goal would see the developing world outside Chinareturning to its slower pace of growth and poverty reductionof the 1980s and 1990s, though with China maintaining itsprogress. This path would take another 50 years or more tolift one billion people out of poverty. The more optimisticpath would maintain the (impressive) progress againstpoverty since 2000, which would instead reach the target byaround 2025-30. This scenario is consistent with both linearprojections of the time series data and non-linearsimulations of inequality-neutral growth for the developingworld as a whole.