Export Surges : The Power of a Competitive Currency

Freund, Caroline ; Pierola, Martha Denisse

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    APARTHEID;    ASSETS;    AVERAGE GROWTH;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4750
RP-ID  :  WPS4750

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

How can countries stimulate and sustainstrong export growth?To answer this question, the authorsexamine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significantincreases in manufacturing export growth that are sustainedfor at least seven years. They find that export surges indeveloping countries tend to be preceded by a large realdepreciation-which leaves the exchange rate significantlyundervalued-and a reduction in exchange rate volatility.Incontrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchangerate is less pronounced. The authors examine why theexchange rate is so important in developing countries andfind that the depreciation leads to a significantreallocation of resources in the export sector. Inparticular, depreciation generates more entries into newexport products and new markets, and the percentage of newentries that fail after one year declines.These newproducts and new markets are important, accounting for 25percent of export growth during the surge in developingcountries. The authors argue that maintaining a competitivecurrency leads firms to expand the product and market spacefor exports, inducing a large reorientation of the tradable sector.