Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices : The Case of Mali

Joseph, George ; Wodon, Quentin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL WAGE;    AGRICULTURE;    AVERAGE INCOME;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4744
RP-ID  :  WPS4744

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Concerns have been raised about theimpact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. Toassess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in anyparticular country it is necessary to look at both theimpact on food producers (who benefit from an increase inprices) and food consumers (who loose out when the priceincreases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. InMali the impact of a change in the price of rice is notambiguous because about half of the rice consumed in thecountry is imported, so that the negative impact forconsumers is much larger than the positive impact forproducers. By contrast, for millet and sorghum, as well ascorn, the impact is more ambiguous since much of theconsumption is locally produced. Using a recent andcomprehensive household survey, this paper provides anassessment of the potential impact of higher food prices onthe poor in Mali using both simple statistical analysis andnon-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising foodprices for rice, millet and sorghum, corn, as well as wheatand bread could together lead to a substantial increase inpoverty, with the increase in the price of rice having byfar the largest negative impact.