Beyond Mitigation : Potential Options for Counter-Balancing the Climatic and Environmental Consequences of the Rising Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases

MacCracken, Mike

关键词: ABSORBED RADIATION;    ABSORPTION;    ACID;    ACID DEPOSITION;    ACID RAIN;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4938
RP-ID  :  WPS4938

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Global climate change is occurring at anaccelerating pace, and the global greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions that are forcing climate change continue toincrease. Given the present pace of international actions,it seems unlikely that atmospheric composition can bestabilized at a level that will avoid "dangerousanthropogenic interference" with the climate system, ascalled for in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.Complicating the situation, as GHG emissions are reduced,reductions in the offsetting cooling influence of sulfateaerosols will create an additional warming influence, makingan early transition to climate stabilization difficult. Withsignificant reductions in emissions (mitigation) likely totake decades, and with the impacts of projected climatechange-even with proactive adaptation-likely to be quitesevere over the coming decades, additional actions to offsetglobal warming and other impacts have been proposed asimportant complementary measures. Although a number ofpossible geoengineering approaches have been proposed, eachhas costs and side effects that must be balanced against theexpected benefits of reduced climate impacts. However,substantial new research is needed before comparison of therelative benefits and risks of intervening is possible. Afirst step in determining whether geoengineering is likelyto be a useful option is the initiation of research on fourinterventions to limit the increasing serious impacts:limiting ocean acidification by increasing the removal ofcarbon dioxide from the atmosphere and upper ocean; limitingthe increasing intensity of tropical cyclones; limiting thewarming of the Arctic and associated sea level rise; andsustaining or enhancing the existing sulfate coolinginfluence. In addition, in depth consideration is neededregarding the governance structure for an internationalgeoengineering decision-making framework in the event thatgeoengineering becomes essential.