Estimating IndividualVulnerability to Poverty with Pseudo-Panel Data

Bourguignon, Francois ; Goh, Chor-ching ; Kim, Dae Il

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION;    IMPORT SUBSTITUTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3375
RP-ID  :  WPS3375

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents an original methodto study individual earning dynamics using repeatedcross-sectional data.Because panel data of individuals areseldom available in developing countries, it is difficult tostudy individual earning dynamics and related issues such asthe propensity of earners to fall into poverty orvulnerability to poverty because of changes in earning.This paper shows that under the assumption that individualearning dynamics obey some basic properties and follow asimple stochastic process, the main parameters of thisprocess can be recovered from repeated cross sectional data.The knowledge of these parameters then permits simulation ofthe earning dynamics of an individual, and estimate othermeasures of interest, such as an individual'svulnerability to poverty.The results show that modelparameters recovered from pseudo-panels approximatereasonably well those estimated directly from a true panel.Moreover, implications of the model, in this casepseudo-panel measures of vulnerability to poverty, reflectclosely those based on actual panel data.