Crisis in Latin America : Infrastructure Investment, Employment and the Expectations of Stimulus

Schwartz, Jordan Z. ; Andres, Luis A. ; Dragoiu, Georgeta

关键词: ACCOUNTABILITY;    AIRPORTS;    ASSET VALUE;    ASSET VALUES;    AVERAGE WAGES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5009
RP-ID  :  WPS5009

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Infrastructure investment is a centralpart of the stimulus plans of the Latin American and theCaribbean (LAC) region as it confronts the growing financialcrisis. This paper estimates the potential effects ondirect, indirect, and induced employment for different typesof infrastructure projects with LAC-specific variables. Theanalysis finds that the direct and indirect short-termemployment generation potential of infrastructure capitalinvestment projects may be considerable - averaging around40,000 annual jobs per US$1billion in LAC, depending uponsuch variables as the mix of subsectors in the investmentprogram; the technologies deployed; local wages for skilledand unskilled labor; and the degrees of leakages to importedinputs. While these numbers do not account for substitutioneffect, they are built around an assumed "basket"of investments that crosses infrastructure sectors most ofwhich are not employment-maximizing. Albeit limited inscope, rural road maintenance projects may employ 200,000 to500,000 annualized direct jobs for every US$1billion spent.The paper also describes the potential risks to effectiveinfrastructure investment in an environment of crisisincluding sorting and planning contradictions, delayedimplementation and impact, affordability, and corruption.