How China's Farmers Adapt to Climate Change

Wang, Jinxia ; Mendelsohn, Robert ; Dinar, Ariel ; Huang, Jikun

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO MARKETS;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL POLICY;    AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH;    AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4758
RP-ID  :  WPS4758

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses a cross sectional methodto analyze irrigation choice and crop choice across 8,405farmers in 28 provinces in China. The findings show thatChinese farmers are more likely to irrigate when facinglower temperatures and less precipitation.Farmers inwarmer places are more likely to choose oil crops, maize,and especially cotton and wheat, and are less likely tochoose vegetables, potatoes, sugar, and especially rice andsoybeans.In wetter locations, farmers are more likely tochoose soybeans, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, cotton, andespecially rice, and they are less likely to choosepotatoes, wheat, and especially maize. The analysis of howChinese farmers have adapted to current climate, providesinsight into how they will likely adapt when climatechanges. Future climate scenarios will cause farmers inChina to want to reduce irrigation and shift toward oilcrops, wheat, and especially cotton. In turn, farmers willshift away from potatoes, rice, vegetables, and soybeans.However, adaptation will likely vary greatly from region toregion. Policy makers should anticipate that adaptation isimportant, that the magnitude of changes depends on theclimate scenario, and that the desired changes depend on thelocation of each farm.