Climate Variability, Drought, and Drought Management in Morocco's Agricultural Sector

Verner, Dorte ; Treguer, David ; Redwood, John ; Christensen, Jens ; McDonnell, Rachael ; Elbert, Christine ; Konishi, Yasuo ; Belghazi, Saad

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: DROUGHT;    AGRICULTURE;    MEAN PRECIPITATION;    MEAN TEMPERATURE;    CLIMATE IMPACT;   

RP-ID  :  130404

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Droughts in Morocco are increasing infrequency and intensity. Associated with global climatechange, this trend will likely be more evident in thefuture. Drought damage to the agricultural sector affectsboth rural livelihoods and the national economy as a whole.This report examinesdrought and climate variability impactson agricultural and livestock activities in Morocco. Itrelies on original research on the citrus and olive valuechains, which are both priorities in the government’scurrent agricultural strategy, known as the “Green Plan” orPlan Maroc Vert (PMV). The report also considers droughtimpacts on cereal production, traces the government’sefforts to address drought, and suggests actions to strengththese efforts. Long-term climate change is making Morocco,which already faces rural water scarcity, more vulnerable toextreme weather events. Recurrent atmospheric climateevents, known as teleconnections, such as the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), may further exacerbate thissituation. This study finds that ENSO had limited impacts onthe 2015–2016 droughts in Morocco, but otherteleconnections,specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), had greaterimpacts. Increased climate variability leads to strongerdroughts, which adversely affect livestock andrainfed crops.Moreover, Morocco’s average temperatures are rising andrainfall is becoming more sporadic, both affecting certainparts of the country more than others. Agriculture andagribusiness activities generate over 30 percent ofemployment in Morocco. The agricultural sector also produces20 percent of GDP and 35 percent of exports. Rainfed crops,like wheat, are critical for domestic food security andlivestock survival, but are also most affected byclimatevariability. As such, increasing droughts represent a“contingent liability” for the Moroccan economy. Thisimpacts Morocco’s trade balance as agricultural exports falland food and fodder imports rise to meet increased domesticdemand. This report suggests further drought managementactions. Currently, the government is carrying out importantmonitoring and crop insurance programs, but more can be doneto share information and strengthen inter-governmental andinteragency coordination, especially with governments at theriver basin level.