Buses, Houses or Cash? : Socio-Economic, Spatial and Environmental Consequences of Reforming Public Transport Subsidies in Buenos Aires

Avner, Paolo ; Mehndiratta, Shomik Raj ; Viguie, Vincent ; Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: TRANSIT SUBSIDY;    CASH TRANSFERS;    CONSTRUCTION SUBSIDIES;    LAND USE;    URBANIZATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8166
RP-ID  :  WPS8166

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Transit subsidies in the urban area ofBuenos Aires are high, amounting to a total of US$5 billionfor 2012. They have been challenged on several counts:suspected of driving urban sprawl and associatedinfrastructure costs, diverting resources from systemmaintenance, and failing to reach the poor among others. Inthis context, this paper examines the impacts of costrecovery fares under a range of different policy scenariosthat could cushion the impact of fare increases. Thealternative scenarios that are scrutinized are theuncompensated removal of the transit subsidy, itsreplacement by a lump sum transfer, and its replacement bytwo different construction subsidy schemes. Using a dynamicurban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area ofBuenos Aires, all scenarios are assessed along fourdimensions: (i) the efficiency/welfare impact on residents,(ii) the impacts on the internal structure of the urban areaand sprawl, (iii) the impact on commuting-related carbondioxide emissions, and (iv) the redistributive impacts, witha focus on the poorest households. A series of resultsemerge. First, there are consumption-related welfare gainsfor residents associated with replacing the transit subsidyby a lump sum transfer. Second, there are only moderatereductions in urbanization over time and thus infrastructurecosts associated with the subsidy removal. Third, thereplacement of the transit subsidy leads to only moderateincreases in carbon dioxide emissions despite lower publictransport mode shares, because households will chose tosettle closer to jobs, thereby reducing commuting distances.Finally, the replacement of the transit subsidy by a lumpsum transfer will lead to short-term harsh redistributiveimpacts for captive transit users in some areas of the urbanarea. Medium-term adjustments of land and housing priceswill partially mitigate the negative impacts of highertransport costs for tenants, but will further hurt homeowners.