Recovery from Conflict : Lessons of Success

Mueller, Hannes ; Piemontese, Lavinia ; Tapsoba, Augustin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: post-conflict reconstruction;    conflict;    refugees;    investment;    relapse;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7970
RP-ID  :  WPS7970

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies long-term impacts ofviolent conflict, to provide insights into the costs ofconflict and policies to prevent conflict relapse. Thefindings link evidence on the contemporaneous effects ofconflict with its persistent impact, especially by combiningmultiple data sources such as night lights, indicators ofpolitical exclusion, and nutrition. There is a strong leveleffect on output arising from the intensity of conflict,which, contrary to perceptions of post-conflict booms, onaverage is not reversed by subsequent more rapid growth. Thepaper investigates two possible channels that make conflictpersistent: refugee flows and investment. Both channelsdisplay wide variation across recovery episodes, and arecapable of large surges, which can in some cases generaterapid recoveries. Where recoveries lack buoyancy --which isthe case for many post-conflict episodes -- deeper politicalconstraints appear to be at work, which may ultimatelyrelate to the effectiveness of power sharing. Finally, tohighlight the need for more effective policies and knowledgein this area, the paper shows that the human developmentcosts of conflict are huge, and can persist through a fullgeneration. Policy recommendations and pointers for futureresearch form the conclusion.