Negative Interest Rate Policies : Sources and Implications

Arteta, Carlos ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Stocker, Marc ; Taskin, Temel

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: monetary policy;    quantitative easing;    bank profitability;    financial stability;    negative yields;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7791
RP-ID  :  WPS7791

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Against the background of continuedgrowth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations,and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number ofcentral banks have implemented negative interest ratepolicies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policystimulus over the past few years. This paper studies thesources and implications of NIRP. It reports four mainresults. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRPare conceptually analogous to those under conventionalmonetary policy but NIRP present complications that couldlimit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introductionof NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolvedbroadly as implied by the standard transmission channels.Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability,particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero orif NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time.Potential adverse consequences include the erosion ofprofitability of banks and other financial intermediaries,and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been nosignificant evidence that financial stability has beencompromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implicationsof NIRP for emerging market and developing economies aremostly similar to those of other unconventional monetarypolicy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policymaker’s toolkit but, given their domestic and globalimplications, these policies need to be handled with care tosecure their benefits while mitigating risks.