Impact of Grain Trade Policies on Prices and Welfare : Evidence from Malawi

Fuje, Habtamu ; Pullabhotla, Hemant K.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GRAIN MARKET;    AGRICULTURAL TRADE;    EXPORT BAN;    FOOD SECURITY;    HOUSEHOLD WELFARE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9436
RP-ID  :  WPS9436

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Restricting cross-border trade throughexport bans in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices hasbeen a particularly popular policy tool used by manysub-Saharan countries in recent years. However, little isknown about how the variability in harvests and seasonality-- two critical dimensions of smallholder agriculture inAfrica -- mediate the effects of export bans on householdwelfare. This study assesses the short-term impact of exportbans on prices and welfare of households in Malawi,accounting for these heterogeneities. It uses monthly paneldata on maize prices from 152 markets in Malawi andneighboring countries. To identify the impacts of the bans,the study compares the change in price dispersion between adomestic market in Malawi and another market in aneighboring country, relative to the price dispersionbetween the domestic market and other markets within Malawithat are at a similar distance as the domestic-foreignmarket pair. The findings show that export bans, in theshort run, are associated with lower domestic prices, lowerrelative prices, and less seasonality in prices in Malawi.This is after accounting for harvest levels and theexistence of trade restrictions in neighboring countries.The short-run effects of the export bans help explain whypolicymakers are likely to engage in the use of suchpolicies. However, the welfare analysis shows that thewelfare gains and poverty reduction effects are small inmagnitude and likely to be offset by the long-rundistortionary effects of restrictive trade policies.