Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

Havlí ; k, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Gusti, Mykola ; Schmid, Erwin ; Leclè ; re, David ; Forsell, Nicklas ; Herrero, Mario ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Mosnier, Aline ; Cantele, Matthew ; Obersteiner, Michael

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ALBEDO;    PHOTOSYNTHESIS;    DIVERGENCE;    EMISSIONS REDUCTION;    FOREST DEGRADATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7477
RP-ID  :  WPS7477

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper conducts an integratedassessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigationon agricultural commodity markets and food availability inlow- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses thepartial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to2080. The findings show that climate change effects on theagricultural sector will increase progressively over thecentury. By 2030, the impact of climate change on foodconsumption is moderate but already twice as large in aworld with high inequalities than in a more equal world. Inthe long run, impacts could be much stronger, with globalaverage calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percentby 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°Cuniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would alsoresult in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the referencescenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate changemitigation on development than climate change itself,revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to beredistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effectsof climate change and mitigation on agricultural marketsraise important issues for food security in the long run,but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030.Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-incomecountries to pursue immediate development needs and thusprepare for later periods when adaptation needs andmitigation efforts will become the greatest.