Disaster Risk, Climate Change, and Poverty : Assessing the Global Exposure of Poor People to Floods and Droughts

Winsemius, Hessel C. ; Jongman, Brenden ; Veldkamp, Ted I.E. ; Hallegatte, Stephane ; Bangalore, Mook ; Ward, Philip J.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FLOODING;    POOR PEOPLE;    RISKS;    HOUSEHOLD SIZE;    HOUSEHOLD SURVEY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7480
RP-ID  :  WPS7480

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

People living in poverty areparticularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused bynatural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previousstudies in local contexts have shown that poor people arealso often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However,systematic evidence across countries demonstrating thisfinding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country levelwhether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floodsand droughts, and how this exposure may change in a futureclimate. To this end, household survey data with spatialidentifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-dayand future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper definesand calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds supportthat poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urbanfloods. For floods, no such signal is found for ruralhouseholds, suggesting that different mechanisms—such asland scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. Thepoverty exposure bias does not change significantly underfuture climate scenarios, although the absolute number ofpeople potentially exposed to floods or droughts canincrease or decrease significantly, depending on thescenario and the region. The study finds some evidence ofregional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africaexhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods anddroughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitiveland-use and development policies that protect poor peopleshould be a priority.