The Impact of China’s Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Region : An Application of the GVAR Model

Inoue, Tomoo ; Kaya, Demet ; Ohshige, Hitoshi

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FORECASTS;    GROWTH RATES;    REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;    MONETARY POLICY;    TRADE SHARE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7442
RP-ID  :  WPS7442

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

An export-oriented development strategyfostered the Asia Pacific region’s economic success, makingit the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years,despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies,the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregionaltrade in Asia. Although China’s Asian trading partnersbenefit from increasing exports to China, this strongerlinkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the riskof a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of anegative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asianeconomies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negativeChinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such asIndonesia, to the greatest extent, reflecting both demand andterms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in theEast Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia,Singapore and Thailand, are also severely affected. Theanalysis also finds that a negative shock to China’s realGDP would not only have an adverse effect on the price ofcrude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, butalso on the prices of metals and agricultural products. Thestudy also investigates the impact of a potential negativeshock to the real GDP of the United States on Asiancountries, and determines that although the U.S. economy hasa larger influence on Asian economies than China’s economy,the Asian countries are more exposed to China than everthrough increased economic ties.