Optimal Allocation of Natural Resource Surpluses in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Framework : A DSGE Analysis with Evidence from Uganda

Zeufack, Albert ; Kopoin, Alexandre ; Nganou, Jean-Pascal ; Tchana Tchana, Fulbert ; Kemoe, Laurent

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: public investment;    fiscal policy;    resource-rich;    volatility;    resource allocation;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7910
RP-ID  :  WPS7910

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In low-income, capital-scarce economiesthat face financial and fiscal constraints, managingrevenues from newly found natural resources can be adaunting challenge. The policy debate is how to scale uppublic investment to meet huge needs in infrastructurewithout generating a higher public deficit, and avoid theDutch disease. This paper uses an open economy dynamicstochastic general equilibrium model that is compatible withlow-income economies and calibrated on Ugandan's datato tackle this problem. The paper explores macroeconomicdynamics under three stylized fiscal policy approaches formanaging resource windfalls: investing all in publiccapital, saving all in a sovereign wealth fund, and asustainable-investing approach that proposes a constantshare of resource revenues to finance public investment andthe rest to be saved. The analysis finds that a gradualscaling-up of public investment yields the best outcome, asit minimizes macroeconomic volatility. The analysis theninvestigates the optimal oil share to use for publicinvestment; the criterion minimizes a loss function thataccounts for households' welfare and macroeconomicstability in an environment featuring oil price volatility.The findings show that, depending on the policy maker'spreference for stability, 55 to 85 percent of oil windfallsshould be invested.