The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

Matta, Samer ; Appleton, Simon ; Bleaney, Michael

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: Arab Spring;    economic impact;    synthetic control methodology;    output loss;    distributed lag model;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7856
RP-ID  :  WPS7856

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses Synthetic ControlMethodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as aresult of the "Arab Spring." The results suggestthat the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percentof GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findingsare robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests,and are consistent with those from an AutoregressiveDistributed Lag Model of Tunisia's economic growth.Moreover, this paper finds that investment was the mainchannel through which the economy was adversely impacted bythe Arab Spring.