Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence

Kose, M. Ayhan ; Matsuoka, Hideaki ; Panizza, Ugo ; Vorisek, Dana

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: INFLATION;    INFLATION EXPECTATIONS;    MONETARY POLICY;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    DEVELOPING ECONOMIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8785
RP-ID  :  WPS8785

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a comprehensiveexamination of the determination and evolution of inflationexpectations, with a focus on emerging market and developingeconomies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-terminflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored asthose in advanced economies, despite notable improvementsover the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-terminflation expectations are more sensitive to both domesticand global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be moresuccessful in anchoring inflation expectations in thepresence of an inflation targeting regime, high central banktransparency, strong trade integration, and a low level ofpublic debt.