Determinants and Dynamics of Business Aspirations : Evidence from Small-Scale Entrepreneurs in an Emerging Market

Dalton, Patricio S. ; Ruschenpohler, Julius ; Zia, Bilal

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT;    SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    BUSINESS ASPIRATIONS;    ADAPTIVE LEARNING;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8400
RP-ID  :  WPS8400

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Small-scale entrepreneurs are ubiquitousin emerging market economies, yet very few graduate tobecome larger businesses. This paper asks whether suchentrepreneurs aspire to grow and, if so, on which dimensionsof the business? What factors influence these aspirations,how realistic are they, and do entrepreneurs dynamicallyupdate them based on realized outcomes? A unique panel dataset of small-scale retailers in Indonesia is used to showthat the average business has strong short- and long-termaspirations for growth in shop size, number of employees,number of customers, and sales. Yet, more than 50 percent ofthe businesses report no aspirations for growth in the next12 months, and 16 percent fail to imagine an ideal businessover the long term. Entrepreneurs with low profits, businessskills, and agency beliefs, as well as those who are older,female, and less educated have significantly loweraspirations. Analysis from a year later shows that mostentrepreneurs fail to set realistic aspirations at baseline,but significantly adjust their aspirations to realisticlevels with realized outcomes. The analysis also shows thatbaseline aspirations are a strong predictor of measures ofbusiness expansion and innovation, as well as performanceoutcomes a year later.