Conflict and Poverty

Mueller, Hannes ; Techasunthornwat, Chanon

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES;    POVERTY;    HEALTH;    DEBT;    CYCLE OF VIOLENCE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9455
RP-ID  :  WPS9455

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the relationshipbetween poverty and conflict in the macro and regional data,including a detailed case study of Uganda. The paper relieson a large and growing literature that provides evidence onthe devastating impact that conflict has on health andexpectations. Based on this evidence, it develops astatistical framework to track the cumulative long-termimpact that armed conflict has on poverty, which the papercalls conflict debt. The data confirm that contemporaneousconflict leads to a conflict debt which is only recoveredslowly. The empirical model is not only a good descriptionof the cross-country aggregate poverty time-series data, butalso regional cross-sectional data. A new aspect in themodel is that armed conflict can prevent poverty reductionand, once it is over, allow for strong catch‐up effects asthey exist in the data. But in the most conflict-riddencountries, repeated cycles of violence prevent poverty fromrecovering. According to the most conservative estimates,these countries and regions would have 5‐10 percentagepoints lower poverty rates without their conflict debt.