Morocco is expected to be faced with amajor water shortfall prompted by either expansion in demandfor water or reduction in precipitation induced by climatechange. This paper examines the economywide impacts of thesefactors for Morocco. It uses a computable generalequilibrium model augmented with submodules that traceconsumption of water by uses and land allocation acrosssectors including crops, livestock, and forestry. Resultsshow that water scarcity and changes in crop yields inducedby climate change could reduce the GDP of Morocco up to 6.7billion US dollars per year at 2016 constant prices andeliminate many job opportunities, in particular in the ruralareas of this country. Only a portion of these negativeimpacts can be removed with improvements in water useefficiency. The factors mentioned above will reduceproductivity of Morocco’s cropland and have the potential toreduce irrigated areas. Due to these changes, production ofcrops and food products are expected to fall, with increasesin crop prices by up to 14.3 percent, assuming other factorsbeing equal. Investment in water use efficiency practicesthat save water, in particular in agricultural activities,and shifting toward more valuable and less water intensivecrops can help to partially mitigate these adverse impacts.
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