Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa

Nicolas, Claire ; Samson, Benjamin ; Rozenberg, Julie

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ELECTRIFICATION;    ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY;    SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS;    ELECTRICITY;    ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8747
RP-ID  :  WPS8747

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper explores the investmentsneeded to achieve universal access to electricity inSub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation andmaintenance costs these investments entail. It also exploresthe drivers of these costs, by exploring hundreds ofscenarios that combine alternative assumptions on the levelof service targeted, population growth, urbanization,industrial demand, and technology cost. The main driver ofelectrification costs is found to be the tier of serviceoffered to newly connected households. The annual investmentrequired to reach universal access varies between US$14.5billion per year on average for the basic access scenarios(0.7 percent of the region's gross domestic product peryear over the period) and US$22.7 billion on average for thehigh-quality scenarios (1 percent of gross domesticproduct). In the basic access scenario, costs depend mostlyon industrial demand, which takes a large share of totaldemand. In the high-quality scenarios, costs depend onurbanization rates, as it is cheaper to connect urbanhouseholds to the grid. Investment costs are not sufficientto provide reliable service, and when operations andmaintenance are accounted for, total costs increase toUS$39.7 billion on average for the basic scenarios andUS$61.5 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios.