Real Exchange Rates, Saving, and Growth : Is There a Link?

Montiel, Peter J. ; Servé ; n, Luis

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE DEMAND;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;    BANK POLICY;    BONDS;    BUDGET CONSTRAINT;   

RP-ID  :  57745

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The view that policies directed at thereal exchange rate can have an important effect on economicgrowth has been gaining adherents in recent years. Unlikethe traditional 'misalignment' view that temporarydepartures of the real exchange rate from its equilibriumlevel harm growth by distorting a key relative price in theeconomy, the recent literature stresses the growth effectsof the equilibrium real exchange rate itself, with the claimbeing that a depreciated equilibrium real exchange ratepromotes economic growth. While there is no consensus on theprecise channels through which this effect is generated, anincreasingly common view in policy circles points to savingas the channel of transmission, with the claim that adepreciated real exchange rate raises the domestic savingrate which in turn stimulates growth by increasing the rateof capital accumulation. This paper offers a preliminaryexploration of this claim. Drawing from standard analyticalmodels, stylized facts on saving and real exchange rates,and existing empirical research on saving determinants, thepaper assesses the link between the real exchange rate andsaving. Overall, the conclusion is that saving is unlikelyto provide the mechanism through which the real exchangerate affects growth.