India's Growth Story

Ahmad, Junaid Kamal ; Blum, Florian ; Gupta, Poonam ; Jain, Dhruv

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: DEVELOPMENT;    GROWTH DRIVERS;    INVESTMENT;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    DIVERSIFICATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8599
RP-ID  :  WPS8599

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

India has attained much economic successin the past three decades. Yet an economic deceleration inrecent years has generated worried commentaries about thecountry's growth outlook. This paper offers a long-termperspective on India's growth experience. Analyzing thepast five decades of data, the paper notes that growth hasslowly but steadily accelerated, become less erratic, andbeen well diversified across sectors and states. A moregranular assessment of the period since the early 1990sfinds that there were three distinct phases of growth: aperiod of slow acceleration from 1991 to the early 2000s; ashort period of unusually rapid growth, with certainfeatures of unsustainability, during 2004-08; and acorrective slowdown that started with the global financialcrisis in 2008. The slowdown has been reflected mostprofoundly in investment, credit, and exports. Even as theeconomy has now recovered to a growth rate of 7 to 7.5percent, durably accelerating it to a higher level willrequire a concerted policy momentum that succeeds inreversing the slowdown in investment, credit supply, andexports; and support from the global economy. Maintainingthe hard-won macroeconomic stability, implementing adefinite and durable solution to the banking sector issues,and realizing the expected growth and fiscal dividend fromthe Goods and Services Tax are some of the other factorsthat can help attain a higher growth rate.