Paris Climate Agreement and the Global Economy : Winners and Losers

Wadhwa, Deepika ; Mani, Muthukumara ; Hussein, Zekarias ; Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Badri

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CLIMATE CHANGE;    GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS;    CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION;    INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS;    CARBON POLICY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8392
RP-ID  :  WPS8392

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was thefirst instance of countries adhering to take a collectiveaction against global warming. More than 190 countries cameforward and submitted their contributions in the form ofIntended Nationally Determined Contributions, reflective oftheir ability and capacity to reduce greenhouse gasemissions, as each country set its own targets and actions.For some countries, it meant a significant decline in theiremissions by 2030, while others, like China, the UnitedStates, and India, decided on a more gradual phasing outextending beyond 2030. This paper estimates the economicimpacts of implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement interms of its implications for welfare, gross domesticproduct, investments, and trade for major countries andregions. It uses a computable general equilibrium frameworkto model global, regional, and country impacts. The analysissuggests that the economic impacts will be mostly felt inthe European Union if the Paris Agreement is fullyimplemented. The European Union is likely to suffer awelfare loss of 1.0 to 1.5 percent by 2030. Amongnon-European countries, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexicowill also be affected, with an expected welfare loss ofabout 1.5 percent. Some of the major emitters, such as Chinaand India, will experience minimal impacts to their welfare,and the United States will experience a welfare loss of onlyabout 0.7 by 2030. The sectoral analysis of production andtrade suggests a significant loss to fossil fuel–basedsectors, while clean energy sectors can experiencesignificant gains.