Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: electricity;    energy consumption;    econometric models;    forecasting;    electricity demand;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7974
RP-ID  :  WPS7974

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study assesses the accuracy oftime-series econometric methods in forecasting electricitydemand in developing countries. The analysis of historicaltime series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accuratefor the majority of these countries. These forecastssignificantly outperform predictions of simple heuristicmodels, which assume that electricity demand grows at anexogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domesticproduct growth. The quality of the forecasts, however,diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapideconomic and structural transformation or exposure toconflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult toestablish stable historical demand trends.