Exploring Carbon Pricing in Developing Countries : A Macroeconomic Analysis in Ethiopia

Telaye, Andualem ; Benitez, Pablo ; Tamru, Seneshaw ; Medhin, Haileselassie ; Toman, Michael

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CARBON TAX;    CARBON PRICING;    CLIMATE CHANGE;    CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION;    DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8860
RP-ID  :  WPS8860

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study uses a computable generalequilibrium model to analyze various policy scenarios for acarbon tax on greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum fuelsand kerosene in Ethiopia. The carbon tax starts at $5 perton of carbon dioxide in 2018 and rises to $30 per ton in2030. Different scenarios examine the impacts with revenuerecycling through a uniform sales tax reduction, reductionof labor income tax, reduction of business income tax,direct transfer back to households, and use by thegovernment to reduce debt. Because petroleum fuels andkerosene are a relatively small part of the Ethiopianeconomy, the carbon tax has quite small impacts on overalleconomic activity while having a notable proportionateimpact on greenhouse gas emissions from these energysources, depending on the recycling scenario. The carbon taxcan raise significant revenue -- up to $800 million per yearby 2030. The impacts on the poor through increased cost ofliving are not that large, since the share of the poor intotal use of petroleum fuels and kerosene is small. In termsof income effects through employment changes, urbanhouseholds tend to experience more impacts than ruralhouseholds, but the results also depend on the householdskill level and the revenue recycling scenario.