Developing Countries and Services in the New Industrial Paradigm

Nayyar, Gaurav ; Cruz, Marcio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: SERVICES SECTOR;    ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;    DEINDUSTRIALIZATION;    LABOR SKILLS;    LABOR FORCE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8659
RP-ID  :  WPS8659

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The traditional export-led manufacturingmodel provided the twin benefits of productivity gains andjob creation for unskilled labor in the past. Over the pasttwo decades, however, the peak shares of manufacturing invalue added and employment across a range of developingeconomies occurred at lower levels of per capita incomecompared to their high-income, early-industrializerprecursors. Looking ahead, there is a concern whetherlabor-saving technologies associated with Industry 4.0 --such as robotics, the Internet of Things, and 3-D printing-- will make it even more difficult for lower-incomecountries to have a significant role in globalmanufacturing. Can services-led development be analternative? This paper provides a conceptual framework toinform the discussion, drawing on available empiricalevidence from the literature on the subject. The features ofmanufacturing once thought to be uniquely special forproductivity growth are increasingly shared by some servicesthat yield the benefits of scale, greater competition, andtechnology diffusion associated with international trade.Yet, without sufficient human capital, there are limits tohow much labor can be absorbed in these service sectors,which are also highly skill-intensive. Further, while somehigh-productivity services largely serve final demand orderive demand from several sectors, others are more closelylinked to a manufacturing base.