The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect : Sources and Implications

Stocker, Marc ; Baffes, John ; Some, Y. Modeste ; Vorisek, Dana ; Wheeler, Collette M.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: OIL PRICES;    SHALE OIL;    OPEC;    OIL EXPORTERS;    OIL IMPORTERS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8419
RP-ID  :  WPS8419

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

With the benefit of hindsight, thispaper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causesof the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on theglobal economy. It disentangles the contribution of supplyand demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oilexporters and oil importers, and reviews policy responses inthese countries. The main conclusions are: (i) the declinein oil prices was predominantly triggered by supply factors,particularly rapid efficiency gains in U.S. shale oilproduction, but softening demand prospects played asubstantial role as well; (ii) the short-term benefits offalling oil prices for the global economy were muted byeconomic rebalancing in China, a low responsiveness ofactivity in other oil-importing emerging markets, and asharp slowdown in U.S. investment as energy sector activitydeclined and a the U.S. dollar strengthened; (iii) oilexporters with flexible exchange rates and relatively largefiscal buffers fared better than others, but mostoil-exporting economies still face significant policychallenges as their medium-term prospects for growth andfiscal revenues have deteriorated; (iv) fundamental changesin the oil market make a return to the oil price levels ofthe early 2010s unlikely, pointing to the need foraccelerated reforms, particularly among oil exporters.