Population Aging and Households’ Saving in the Russian Federation

Bussolo, Maurizio ; Simone, Schotte ; Matytsin, Mikhail

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH RATES;    NATIONAL CURRENCY;    SAVINGS RATIO;    DEFICIT;    HOLDING;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7443
RP-ID  :  WPS7443

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using household data from the RussianLongitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses howaging affects saving. To overcome a systematic bias againstthe life-cycle hypothesis of survey data, the paperestimates how the age profile of saving changes when themicro data are corrected to account for the contribution topensions (as additional saving) and receipt of benefits frompensions (as dissaving). With these corrections, the Russiandata support the life-cycle hypothesis. A small decline inthe aggregate saving rate, because of aging, can thus beexpected. However, since aggregate saving rates result froma combination of age and cohort effects, this decline maynot be significant. When extrapolating the rising trends ofthe cohort effect, the fact that younger generations areearning and saving more than older generation at the sameage, the projection shows a growing aggregate saving rate.The changes in saving of future cohorts, for example becauseof changes in the growth rate of the economy, can affect theaggregate saving rate even more than aging.