A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space

Kose, M. Ayhan ; Kurlat, Sergio ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Sugawara, Naotaka

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FISCAL POLICY;    FISCAL DEFICIT;    SOVEREIGN DEBT;    FINANCIAL CRISES;    OIL PRICES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8157
RP-ID  :  WPS8157

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a comprehensivecross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined asthe availability of budgetary resources for a government toservice its financial obligations. The database covers up to200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28indicators of fiscal space grouped into four categories:debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability, externaland private sector debt related risks as potential causes ofcontingent liabilities, and market access. The authorsillustrate potential applications of the database byanalyzing developments in fiscal space across three timeframes: over the past quarter century; during financialcrises; and during oil price plunges. The main results areas follows. First, fiscal space had improved in manycountries before the global financial crisis. In advancedeconomies, following severe deteriorations during thecrisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtuallyreturned to levels in the mid-2000s. In contrast, fiscalspace has shrunk in many emerging market and developingeconomies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend tocoincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscalspace, but they are often followed by reduced reliance onshort-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows inenergy-exporting emerging market and developing economiesduring oil price plunges but later expands, often because ofprocyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, arecovery in oil prices.