Harnessing a Young Nation’s Demographic Dividends through a Universal NDC Pension Scheme : A Case Study of Tanzania

Larsson, Bo ; Leyaro, Vincent ; Palmer, Edward

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: PENSION REFORM;    NONFINANCIAL DEFINED CONTRIBUTIONS;    BOND MARKET;    DEMOGRAPHIC BUBBLE;    LABOR FORCE;   

RP-ID  :  136544

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

About one-half of Africa’s populationwill remain below age 30 well past 2050,with relatively fewaged 60 and older. Using Tanzania’s projected demographicsand presenteconomic point of departure, this paperdemonstrates how the implicit “double”demographic dividendcan be harnessed to create inclusive growth. A Swedish-stylenon financial defined contribution (NDC) system is launchedwhere the government can borrow funds from the futurethrough NDC “consol” bonds to transform individual savingsinto human and physical capital to promote inclusiveeconomic growth. The consol bonds constitute a reserve tocover pensions of the retiring “demographic bubble” in thefuture as the dependency ratio gradually glides intodemographic equilibrium. Minimum transfers tothe currentelderly are also introduced with the phase-in.