Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees

Razlog, Lilia ; Marrison, Chris ; Irwin, Tim

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GUARANTEES;    CONTINGENT LIABILITY;    ON-LENDING;    PUBLIC FINANCE;    FISCAL RISK;   

RP-ID  :  148802

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Central to making good decisions aboutdebt guarantees is assessing their expected and possiblefiscal cost, a task that many governments still strugglewith. This paper therefore describes a relatively simplescenario analysis method for estimating potential paymentsfrom the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty withdebt payments. The basic version of the approach estimatesthe payments in a given scenario to inform risk managementdecisions. The paper then extends the method for situationswhere more rigor is required or where the economic guaranteefee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extendsthe method to assess the combined loss of multipleguarantees when simultaneously subjected to negativeeconomic conditions.