Long-Term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Sinha, Rishabh

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH ANALYTICS;    total factor productivity;    labor productivity;    growth;    investment;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7952
RP-ID  :  WPS7952

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Bangladesh has achieved robust economicgrowth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by morethan 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigateswhether the country will be able to maintain such highlevels of growth going forward. A simple growth modelcalibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyzevarious growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper isthat it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms toraise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain thehigh real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The countrywill fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFPgrowth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlinedin the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used togain insights on government debt sustainability givendifferent growth scenarios. The analysis highlights thesignificance of meeting revenue targets in maintainingsustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures.