Building an Ex Ante Simulation Model for Estimating the Capacity Impact, Benefit Incidence, and Cost Effectiveness of Child Care Subsidies : An Application Using Provider-Level Data from Turkey

Aran, Meltem A. ; Munoz-Boudet, Ana Maria ; Aktakke, Nazli

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: day care centers;    subsidies;    vouchers;    education finance;    poverty;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7917
RP-ID  :  WPS7917

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Public financing of child care can allowfor more equitable access to these services in places wherepublic provision and capacity are low. However, themechanisms of subsidy delivery will affect who benefits, andthe overall cost effectiveness of such subsidies. This papersets out an ex ante simulation model for estimating thebenefit incidence of expanded capacity and enrollmentsresulting from different child care subsidy mechanisms. Ituses a supply-side provider level and a demand-sidehousehold model, and combines the two models. The paperconsiders investment grants to providers, operationalmonthly grants to child care providers, combinations of theinvestment and operational grants, and demand-side vouchersto households. The model is applied to empirical data fromchild care centers and households in Turkey. The resultsreveal that the choice of the subsidy delivery model has astrong bearing on the benefit incidence and costeffectiveness of the subsidy. In the case of Turkey, wheresignificant supply-side constraints exist in the market, ademand-side voucher system is shown to be the leastcost-effective subsidy delivery model. A targeteddemand-side voucher does not necessarily deliver the most"pro-poor results," and combinations showdifferent benefits and costs. The proposed simulation modelcan be applied in other country contexts, with the only datarequirements being micro data on the costs and pricingstructure of child care providers, as well as household datawith variables on household welfare and child care utilization.