Should I Stay or Should I Go : Do Cash Transfers Affect Migration?

Adhikari, Samik ; Gentilini, Ugo

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CASH TRANSFERS;    MIGRATION;    LABOR MOBILITY;    SOCIAL PROTECTION;    SOCIAL ASSISTANCE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8525
RP-ID  :  WPS8525

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The paper reviews the evidence on a"hot" and yet underexplored question -- that is,whether and how social assistance programs (especially cashtransfers) affect domestic and international migration. Outan initial sample of 269 papers, 10 relevant empiricalstudies examine the question. The programs are classifiedinto three clusters: (i) social assistance that implicitlydeters migration centering on place-based programs, (ii)social assistance that implicitly facilitates migration byrelaxing liquidity constraints and reducing transactioncosts, and (iii) social assistance that is explicitlyconditioned on spatial mobility. The paper finds thatimpacts on migration generally align with the implicit orexplicit goals of interventions. Under cluster (i), thelikelihood of moving declined between 0.22 and 11 percentagepoints; among schemes in clusters (ii) and (iii), theprobability to move soared between 0.32-25 and 20-55percentage points, respectively. The analysis also findsspillover effects within households and communities. Whilesocial assistance seems not to determine migration decisionsper se, it nonetheless enters the broader calculous ofmobility decision making. As such, social protection can bean important part of public policy packages to managemobility. More research is needed to improve understandingof the role of social protection in structuraltransformation -- a process underpinned by domestic mobilityand the performance of which may ultimately affectinternational migration.