Are Automation and Trade Polarizing Developing Country Labor Markets, Too?

Maloney, William F. ; Molina, Carlos

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: labor markets;    polarization;    automation;    globalization;    developing countries;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7922
RP-ID  :  WPS7922

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The automation and out-sourcing ofroutine, codifiable tasks are seen as driving polarizationin labor markets in high-income countries. This paper firstoffers several explanations for why developing countriesmight show differing dynamics, at least for the present.Census data then confirms this, showing on average noevidence of polarization in developing countries. However,incipient polarization in a few countries as well as majordrives to automate in some large, labor intensive producerssuggests this may not remain the case. This raises concernsfirst about the impact on equity within those countries, butsecond the possibility that the traditional flying geesepattern" -- whereby low skilled jobs are progressivelyoff-shored to poorer and poorer countries -- may be short circuited.