Tracing the Local Impacts of Exports on Poverty and Inequality in Mexico

Rodrí ; guez-Castelá ; n, Carlos ; Vazquez, Emmanuel ; Winkler, Hernan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EXPORTS;    POVERTY;    INEQUALITY;    INTERNATIONAL TRADE;    LABOR MARKET;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9459
RP-ID  :  WPS9459

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Evidence on the effect of exports onwelfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the studypresented in this paper provides new evidence on the impactof a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequalityat the local level. The analysis implements an instrumentalvariable approach that combines the initial structure ofexports across municipalities with global trends in exportsfrom developing to developed countries by sector. Theresults show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio ofexports to workers reduces income inequality measured by theGini coefficient by 0.17 point (using a 0 to 100 scale), butno significant effects on poverty reduction or averagehousehold incomes are identified. The lack of impacts onaverage incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of laborat the local level because municipalities with higher exportgrowth experienced an increase in labor force participationand attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilledworkers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew inresponse to an increase in exports, average labor income perworker did not change. Declining remittances also bluntedthe effect of growing exports on household incomes.