Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments

Boyle, Glenn ; Irwin, Timothy

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CALCULATION;    DISCOUNT RATE;    EQUATIONS;    EXPECTED RETURN;    EXPECTED VALUE;   

RP-ID  :  34302

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Long-term commitments to makeoutput-based payments for infrastructure can encourageprivate investors to provide socially valuable services.Making good decisions about such commitments is difficult,however, unless the government understands the fiscal costsand risks of possible commitments. Considering voucherschemes, shadow tolls, availability payments, and access,connection, and consumption subsidies, this paper considersmeasures of the fiscal risks of such commitments, includingthe excess-payment probability and cash-flow-at-risk. Thenit illustrates techniques, based on modern finance theory,for valuing payment commitments by taking account of thetiming of payments and their risk characteristics. Althoughthe paper is inevitably mathematical, it focuses onpractical applications and shows how the techniques can beimplemented in spreadsheets.