Managing Sudden Stops

Eichengreen, Barry ; Gupta, Poonam

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CURRENCY MISMATCHES;    MONETARY POLICY;    DEFICIT;    DEPOSIT;    FOREIGN CAPITAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7639
RP-ID  :  WPS7639

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The recent reversal of capital flows toemerging markets has pointed up the continuing relevance ofthe sudden stop problem. This paper analyzes the suddenstops in capital flows to emerging markets since 1991. Itshows that the frequency and duration of sudden stops haveremained largely unchanged, but that the relative importanceof different factors in their incidence has changed. Inparticular, global factors appear to have become moreimportant relative to country-specific characteristics andpolicies. Sudden stops now tend to affect different parts ofthe world simultaneously rather than bunching regionally.Stronger macroeconomic and financial frameworks have allowedpolicy makers to respond more flexibly, but these moreflexible responses have not guaranteed insulation ormitigated the impact of the phenomenon. These findingssuggest that the challenge of understanding and coping withcapital-flow volatility is far from fully met.