China's Productivity Slowdown and Future Growth Potential

Brandt, Loren ; Litwack, John ; Mileva, Elitza ; Wang, Luhang ; Zhang, Yifan ; Zhao, Luan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH;    RESOURCE ALLOCATION;    STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES;    LOCAL GOVERNMENT;    PRODUCTIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9298
RP-ID  :  WPS9298

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

China’s economy grew by an impressive 10percent per year over four decades. Productivityimprovements within sectors and gains from resourcereallocation between sectors and ownership groups drove thatexpansion. However, productivity growth has declinedmarkedly in recent years. This paper extends previous macroand firm-level studies to show that domestic factors andpolicies contributed to the slowdown. The analysis findsthat limited market entry and exit and lack of resourceallocation to more productive firms were associated withslower manufacturing total factor productivity growth.Earlier reforms led to state-owned enterprises catching upto private sector productivity levels in manufacturing, butconvergence stalled after 2007. Furthermore, the allocationof a larger share of credit and investment to infrastructureand housing led to lower returns to capital, a rapid buildupin debt, and higher risks to growth. China’s growthpotential remains high, but its long-term growth prospectsdepend on reversing the recent decline in total factorproductivity growth.