Long-Term Energy Demand Forecasting in Romania : An End-Use Demand Modeling Approach

Malla, Sunil ; Timilsina, Govinda R.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ELECTRIC SERVICES;    LOW CARBON ECONOMY;    TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM;    TRANSPORT SECTOR;    REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7697
RP-ID  :  WPS7697

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study develops an end-use energydemand analysis model for Romania to project energy demandby sector and end-use for 2015-50. The study finds thatRomania's energy demand in 2050 would be 34 percenthigher than the level in 2013. The industry sector would bethe largest final energy-consuming sector, surpassing theresidential sector from 2025 onward. The services sectorwould exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption inline with the expected structural change from manufacturingto services. Although population in the country is projectedto drop by 7 percent in 2050 from the 2013 level,electricity demand would increase by 46 percent over thesame period, because of increased household income and theexpanded service sector, which is relatively electricityintensive. Still, per capita electricity consumption inRomania will be about half the European Union 28 average. Atthe end-use level, thermal processes in the industry sector,space heating in the residential and services sectors, androad transportation in the transport sector would bedominant throughout the study period. The study also showsthat improvement of energy efficiency in the heating systemwould be the main channel to cut energy demand in the country.