Depreciations without Exports? : Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Ahmed, Swarnali ; Appendino, Maximiliano ; Ruta, Michele

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH RATES;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    PRODUCTION;    NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES;    FIXED EFFECT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7390
RP-ID  :  WPS7390

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes how the exchangerate elasticity of exports has changed over time and acrosscountries and sectors, and how the formation of global valuechains has affected this relationship. The analysis uses apanel framework covering 46 countries over the period1996-2012, and first finds evidence that the elasticity ofmanufacturing export volumes to the real effective exchangerate has decreased over time. The paper then examineswhether the formation of supply chains has affected thiselasticity using different measures of global value chainintegration. Intuitively, as countries are more integratedin global production processes, a currency depreciation onlyimproves the competitiveness of a fraction of the value offinal goods exports. In line with this intuition, theanalysis finds evidence that the rise of participation inglobal value chains explains on average 40 percent of thefall in the elasticity, and that corrections of the realeffective exchange rate for participation in global valuechains do not present the same decreasing pattern in elasticity.