Are Capital Flows Fickle? Increasingly? And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type?

Eichengreen, Barry ; Gupta, Poonam ; Masetti, Oliver

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: capital flows;    emerging markets;    sudden stops;    portfolio flows;    FDI;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7972
RP-ID  :  WPS7972

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

According to conventional wisdom,capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, thispaper asks whether this conventional wisdom still holds inthe contemporary world. The results show that, despiterecent structural and regulatory changes, much of itsurvives. FDI inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows.Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt andbank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. While FDIinflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debtand equity are driven mainly by push factors; andbank-intermediated flows are driven by a combination of pushand pull factors. But capital outflows from emerging marketsbehave differently. FDI outflows from emerging markets havegrown and become significantly more volatile. There issimilarly an increase in the volatility ofbank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets.The findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets,both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growingrole and warrant greater attention from analysts and policy makers.