Breaking into Tradables : Urban Form and Urban Function in a Developing City

Venables, Anthony J.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: city;    urban development;    structural transformation;    tradable goods;    urbanization;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7950
RP-ID  :  WPS7950

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Many cities in developing economies,particularly in Africa, are experiencing urbanizationwithout industrialization. This paper conceptualizes this ina framework in which a city can produce non-tradable goodsand -- if it is sufficiently competitive -- alsointernationally tradable goods, potentially subject toincreasing returns to scale. A city is unlikely to producetradables if it faces high urban and hinterland demand fornon-tradables, or high costs of urban infrastructure andconstruction. The paper shows that, if there are increasingreturns in tradable production, there may be multipleequilibria. The same initial conditions can supportdichotomous outcomes, with cities either in a low-level(non-tradable only) equilibrium, or diversified in tradableand non-tradable production. The paper demonstrates theimportance of history and expectations in determiningoutcomes. Essentially, a city can be built in a manner thatmakes it difficult to attract tradable production. Thissituation might be a consequence of low (andself-fulfilling) expectations or history. The predictions ofthe model are consistent with several observed features ofAfrican cities.